Forecast skill

How often our forecast was close to what a buoy then measured, for the buoys that stand in for each port. A forecast counts as right when it is within the stated tolerance of the reading nearest its valid time. The record covers the last 7 days and, beside it, the last 30 days; each figure shows how many forecasts it rests on. Forecasts from every model we collect are counted together. Until a window has enough history (30 distinct forecast hours across at least 7 days and 3 model runs) it reads “not enough data yet” and shows no percentage.

Not scored yet

Swell period and water temperature are not scored yet. Neither is checked against buoy readings today, so this page makes no claim about how often they were right.

A record of past forecasts at the buoys, not a promise about the next trip. Data status